Recent developments, including the May 15 arrest of an Iran-linked suspect accused of planning terror attacks on Jewish sites in the United States, have lifted the implied probability of a qualifying charge to 59 percent. Federal authorities have described the individual as operating in retaliation for broader US-Iran conflict, raising the prospect that prosecutors could formally allege agency ties to Tehran’s government or Revolutionary Guard before the May 31 deadline. Earlier April indictments, such as the case of Shamim Mafi for sanctions violations and arms brokering, did not meet the market’s criteria for covert intelligence or espionage activity. Ongoing diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran continues to influence trader assessments of whether additional indictments will surface in the remaining two weeks.