Since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in early March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, the official @khamenei_ir account has operated under the “martyred Leader” designation at a consistently lower volume. Historical patterns since the transition show zero to four posts in most weeks absent acute crises, which directly supports the trader consensus placing the highest implied probability on fewer than five posts for May 19–26. No diplomatic summits, legislative sessions, or military escalations are scheduled in the resolution window that would normally trigger elevated messaging. Recent statements on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear posture appeared in late April and early May but have not continued at that pace, leaving the account’s baseline activity unchanged. Comparable prior-week markets reflect the same distribution, with higher ranges priced only for hypothetical escalation signals that have not materialized.