Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and associated energy price increases have become the dominant driver of UK inflation expectations for 2026, pushing Bank of England projections for CPI to average 3.2% in Q4 amid indirect effects on food and goods prices. The latest ONS data showed CPI easing to 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026, yet forecaster consensus points to a rebound toward 3.5% by year-end as energy costs pass through. This uncertainty is reflected in the closely matched Polymarket implied probabilities for the 2.5–2.9% and 3.5–3.9% annual ranges, which capture the balance between moderating labor market slack containing wage pressures and upside risks from global supply shocks. Key upcoming data releases on energy markets and the next BoE Monetary Policy Report will likely influence further repricing of these outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
3.5–3.9% 23.8%
2.5–2.9% 23.4%
4.0-4.4% 10%
4.5%+ 8%
$55,682 KL.
$55,682 KL.
Jan 20, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
4%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
6%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
24%
4.0-4.4%
10%
4.5%+
8%
3.5–3.9% 23.8%
2.5–2.9% 23.4%
4.0-4.4% 10%
4.5%+ 8%
$55,682 KL.
$55,682 KL.
Jan 20, 2027
<1.0%
$876 KL.
<1%
1.0–1.4%
$1,193 KL.
4%
1.5–1.9%
$554 KL.
2%
2.0–2.4%
$4,090 KL.
6%
2.5–2.9%
$13,417 KL.
23%
3.0–3.4%
$0 KL.
-
3.5–3.9%
$22,175 KL.
24%
4.0-4.4%
$5,508 KL.
10%
4.5%+
$7,869 KL.
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent Middle East geopolitical tensions and associated energy price increases have become the dominant driver of UK inflation expectations for 2026, pushing Bank of England projections for CPI to average 3.2% in Q4 amid indirect effects on food and goods prices. The latest ONS data showed CPI easing to 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026, yet forecaster consensus points to a rebound toward 3.5% by year-end as energy costs pass through. This uncertainty is reflected in the closely matched Polymarket implied probabilities for the 2.5–2.9% and 3.5–3.9% annual ranges, which capture the balance between moderating labor market slack containing wage pressures and upside risks from global supply shocks. Key upcoming data releases on energy markets and the next BoE Monetary Policy Report will likely influence further repricing of these outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Thị trường mở: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$55,682Ngày kết thúc
Jan 20, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent Middle East geopolitical tensions and associated energy price increases have become the dominant driver of UK inflation expectations for 2026, pushing Bank of England projections for CPI to average 3.2% in Q4 amid indirect effects on food and goods prices. The latest ONS data showed CPI easing to 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026, yet forecaster consensus points to a rebound toward 3.5% by year-end as energy costs pass through. This uncertainty is reflected in the closely matched Polymarket implied probabilities for the 2.5–2.9% and 3.5–3.9% annual ranges, which capture the balance between moderating labor market slack containing wage pressures and upside risks from global supply shocks. Key upcoming data releases on energy markets and the next BoE Monetary Policy Report will likely influence further repricing of these outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Khối lượng
$55,682Ngày kết thúc
Jan 20, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and associated energy price increases have become the dominant driver of UK inflation expectations for 2026, pushing Bank of England projections for CPI to average 3.2% in Q4 amid indirect effects on food and goods prices. The latest ONS data showed CPI easing to 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026, yet forecaster consensus points to a rebound toward 3.5% by year-end as energy costs pass through. This uncertainty is reflected in the closely matched Polymarket implied probabilities for the 2.5–2.9% and 3.5–3.9% annual ranges, which capture the balance between moderating labor market slack containing wage pressures and upside risks from global supply shocks. Key upcoming data releases on energy markets and the next BoE Monetary Policy Report will likely influence further repricing of these outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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