**Recent developments show the Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% on July 24, slowing the pace of easing after multiple larger reductions from the 21% peak.** The central bank cited one-off fuel price spikes from refinery disruptions, elevated inflation expectations, and more expansionary fiscal policy than previously projected as reasons for a cautious approach, while noting that underlying inflation measures remain near 4–5% annualized and economic growth has stayed moderate amid capacity constraints. Traders price no change as the consensus outcome for the September meeting because the latest signal emphasized a smoother trajectory and the need to monitor second-round effects before further easing. A decrease retains meaningful probability if incoming data confirm the temporary nature of headline pressures and continued deceleration in lending, whereas an increase is viewed as unlikely given the focus on supporting growth without reigniting persistent inflation risks. The implied probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing these monetary policy trade-offs in real time.