Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18, 2026, 25-basis-point hike to a 1.25% policy rate amid underlying inflation nearing the 2% target, has anchored trader expectations for sustained upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields. Elevated oil prices, global Treasury yield movements, and fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—evidenced by record budgetary requests—have reinforced concerns over term premiums and potential supply increases. With the 10-year JGB yield trading near 2.98-3.0% as of mid-September, these dynamics support the 66.3% implied probability for a 3.0%+ close at year-end, though further data on inflation trajectories and any additional tightening will shape whether yields stabilize or extend gains into December.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 15.3%
2.4-2.6% 7.1%
2.6-2.8% 2.5%
$29,743 KL.
$29,743 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
15%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 15.3%
2.4-2.6% 7.1%
2.6-2.8% 2.5%
$29,743 KL.
$29,743 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
$1,370 KL.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 KL.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 KL.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 KL.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 KL.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 KL.
15%
3.0%+
$11,574 KL.
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18, 2026, 25-basis-point hike to a 1.25% policy rate amid underlying inflation nearing the 2% target, has anchored trader expectations for sustained upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields. Elevated oil prices, global Treasury yield movements, and fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—evidenced by record budgetary requests—have reinforced concerns over term premiums and potential supply increases. With the 10-year JGB yield trading near 2.98-3.0% as of mid-September, these dynamics support the 66.3% implied probability for a 3.0%+ close at year-end, though further data on inflation trajectories and any additional tightening will shape whether yields stabilize or extend gains into December.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Thị trường mở: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$29,743Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18, 2026, 25-basis-point hike to a 1.25% policy rate amid underlying inflation nearing the 2% target, has anchored trader expectations for sustained upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields. Elevated oil prices, global Treasury yield movements, and fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—evidenced by record budgetary requests—have reinforced concerns over term premiums and potential supply increases. With the 10-year JGB yield trading near 2.98-3.0% as of mid-September, these dynamics support the 66.3% implied probability for a 3.0%+ close at year-end, though further data on inflation trajectories and any additional tightening will shape whether yields stabilize or extend gains into December.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Khối lượng
$29,743Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18, 2026, 25-basis-point hike to a 1.25% policy rate amid underlying inflation nearing the 2% target, has anchored trader expectations for sustained upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields. Elevated oil prices, global Treasury yield movements, and fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—evidenced by record budgetary requests—have reinforced concerns over term premiums and potential supply increases. With the 10-year JGB yield trading near 2.98-3.0% as of mid-September, these dynamics support the 66.3% implied probability for a 3.0%+ close at year-end, though further data on inflation trajectories and any additional tightening will shape whether yields stabilize or extend gains into December.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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