As of late August 2026, trader sentiment for a near-term Grok 5 release reflects repeated timeline slips, with xAI missing both its original Q1 and subsequent Q2 2026 targets. Focus has instead shifted to rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series, highlighted by the July rollout of Grok 4.5 across platforms and recent mentions of Grok 4.6 integrations. Elon Musk's public updates emphasize 4.5's competitive performance on benchmarks and real-world tasks against models like GPT-5 variants, with no official Grok 5 announcements or training completion signals. This pattern of incremental 4.x updates amid ongoing development of the next flagship model implies lower implied probabilities for a 2026 release absent a major catalyst such as a sudden capability leap or strategic pivot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
33%
November 30
49%
December 31
70%
$6,580 KL.
August 31
$3,006 KL.
<1%
October 31
$340 KL.
33%
November 30
$0 KL.
49%
December 31
$1,711 KL.
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.As of late August 2026, trader sentiment for a near-term Grok 5 release reflects repeated timeline slips, with xAI missing both its original Q1 and subsequent Q2 2026 targets. Focus has instead shifted to rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series, highlighted by the July rollout of Grok 4.5 across platforms and recent mentions of Grok 4.6 integrations. Elon Musk's public updates emphasize 4.5's competitive performance on benchmarks and real-world tasks against models like GPT-5 variants, with no official Grok 5 announcements or training completion signals. This pattern of incremental 4.x updates amid ongoing development of the next flagship model implies lower implied probabilities for a 2026 release absent a major catalyst such as a sudden capability leap or strategic pivot.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,580Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.As of late August 2026, trader sentiment for a near-term Grok 5 release reflects repeated timeline slips, with xAI missing both its original Q1 and subsequent Q2 2026 targets. Focus has instead shifted to rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series, highlighted by the July rollout of Grok 4.5 across platforms and recent mentions of Grok 4.6 integrations. Elon Musk's public updates emphasize 4.5's competitive performance on benchmarks and real-world tasks against models like GPT-5 variants, with no official Grok 5 announcements or training completion signals. This pattern of incremental 4.x updates amid ongoing development of the next flagship model implies lower implied probabilities for a 2026 release absent a major catalyst such as a sudden capability leap or strategic pivot.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$6,580Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of late August 2026, trader sentiment for a near-term Grok 5 release reflects repeated timeline slips, with xAI missing both its original Q1 and subsequent Q2 2026 targets. Focus has instead shifted to rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series, highlighted by the July rollout of Grok 4.5 across platforms and recent mentions of Grok 4.6 integrations. Elon Musk's public updates emphasize 4.5's competitive performance on benchmarks and real-world tasks against models like GPT-5 variants, with no official Grok 5 announcements or training completion signals. This pattern of incremental 4.x updates amid ongoing development of the next flagship model implies lower implied probabilities for a 2026 release absent a major catalyst such as a sudden capability leap or strategic pivot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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