Trader consensus on the 86.5% market-implied odds for "No" stems primarily from Tesla's deliberate emphasis on robotaxi service deployment over retail sales of the Cybercab. Pilot production began at Giga Texas in February 2026 with installed capacity above 125,000 units annually, yet the Q2 update dropped prior volume-production guidance, and Elon Musk described the initial ramp as "agonizingly slow." The September 3 Austin launch event is expected to start with employee rides before limited robotaxi service integration, aligning with regulatory and unsupervised Full Self-Driving validation needs rather than opening public orders at the targeted $25,000–$30,000 price. Historical timeline slippage and the market's strict resolution criteria—requiring a completed retail sale to a non-employee buyer by December 31—further reinforce the current odds ahead of any potential post-event clarity.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật14% khả năng
$51,807 KL.
$51,807 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
14% khả năng
$51,807 KL.
$51,807 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the 86.5% market-implied odds for "No" stems primarily from Tesla's deliberate emphasis on robotaxi service deployment over retail sales of the Cybercab. Pilot production began at Giga Texas in February 2026 with installed capacity above 125,000 units annually, yet the Q2 update dropped prior volume-production guidance, and Elon Musk described the initial ramp as "agonizingly slow." The September 3 Austin launch event is expected to start with employee rides before limited robotaxi service integration, aligning with regulatory and unsupervised Full Self-Driving validation needs rather than opening public orders at the targeted $25,000–$30,000 price. Historical timeline slippage and the market's strict resolution criteria—requiring a completed retail sale to a non-employee buyer by December 31—further reinforce the current odds ahead of any potential post-event clarity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$51,807Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the 86.5% market-implied odds for "No" stems primarily from Tesla's deliberate emphasis on robotaxi service deployment over retail sales of the Cybercab. Pilot production began at Giga Texas in February 2026 with installed capacity above 125,000 units annually, yet the Q2 update dropped prior volume-production guidance, and Elon Musk described the initial ramp as "agonizingly slow." The September 3 Austin launch event is expected to start with employee rides before limited robotaxi service integration, aligning with regulatory and unsupervised Full Self-Driving validation needs rather than opening public orders at the targeted $25,000–$30,000 price. Historical timeline slippage and the market's strict resolution criteria—requiring a completed retail sale to a non-employee buyer by December 31—further reinforce the current odds ahead of any potential post-event clarity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$51,807Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the 86.5% market-implied odds for "No" stems primarily from Tesla's deliberate emphasis on robotaxi service deployment over retail sales of the Cybercab. Pilot production began at Giga Texas in February 2026 with installed capacity above 125,000 units annually, yet the Q2 update dropped prior volume-production guidance, and Elon Musk described the initial ramp as "agonizingly slow." The September 3 Austin launch event is expected to start with employee rides before limited robotaxi service integration, aligning with regulatory and unsupervised Full Self-Driving validation needs rather than opening public orders at the targeted $25,000–$30,000 price. Historical timeline slippage and the market's strict resolution criteria—requiring a completed retail sale to a non-employee buyer by December 31—further reinforce the current odds ahead of any potential post-event clarity.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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