Anthropic’s advanced IPO preparations, including a confidential SEC filing and targeted November 2026 listing at $1.8–2 trillion valuation, represent the core driver behind the 97.2% market-implied probability against acquisition before 2027. The company has secured massive non-cancelable compute commitments exceeding $518 billion with Amazon, Google, and others while expanding infrastructure and model capabilities, such as recent safeguards against distillation attacks on its Claude large language models. Independent growth through funding rounds reaching $965 billion post-money and strategic partnerships without control transfer reinforces trader consensus that a near-term buyout is improbable. Realistic disruptors remain limited to unforeseen regulatory blocks on the IPO or an exceptionally compelling last-minute bid, though timelines and momentum make these remote.