Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July 2026 employment report showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of gains near 80,000, anchors trader positioning for the August unemployment rate. The July rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, driven primarily by a contraction in labor force participation to 61.4% rather than broad hiring strength, with weakness concentrated in government, retail, and leisure sectors. This data has tilted market-implied odds toward a narrow cluster around 4.1% and 4.2%, reflecting uncertainty over whether the cooling trend will stabilize or accelerate amid still-elevated inflation readings. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and August employment indicators that could shift consensus on the path toward the September 9 report.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4.1% 32%
4.2% 31%
4.3% 25%
4.0% 11%
$13,517 KL.
$13,517 KL.
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
<1%
3.9%
5%
4.0%
11%
4.1%
32%
4.2%
31%
4.3%
25%
4.4%
2%
4.5%
2%
≥4.6%
4%
4.1% 32%
4.2% 31%
4.3% 25%
4.0% 11%
$13,517 KL.
$13,517 KL.
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
$323 KL.
<1%
3.9%
$424 KL.
5%
4.0%
$1,517 KL.
11%
4.1%
$4,422 KL.
32%
4.2%
$2,636 KL.
31%
4.3%
$2,857 KL.
25%
4.4%
$568 KL.
2%
4.5%
$380 KL.
2%
≥4.6%
$389 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July 2026 employment report showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of gains near 80,000, anchors trader positioning for the August unemployment rate. The July rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, driven primarily by a contraction in labor force participation to 61.4% rather than broad hiring strength, with weakness concentrated in government, retail, and leisure sectors. This data has tilted market-implied odds toward a narrow cluster around 4.1% and 4.2%, reflecting uncertainty over whether the cooling trend will stabilize or accelerate amid still-elevated inflation readings. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and August employment indicators that could shift consensus on the path toward the September 9 report.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Thị trường mở: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,517Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July 2026 employment report showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of gains near 80,000, anchors trader positioning for the August unemployment rate. The July rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, driven primarily by a contraction in labor force participation to 61.4% rather than broad hiring strength, with weakness concentrated in government, retail, and leisure sectors. This data has tilted market-implied odds toward a narrow cluster around 4.1% and 4.2%, reflecting uncertainty over whether the cooling trend will stabilize or accelerate amid still-elevated inflation readings. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and August employment indicators that could shift consensus on the path toward the September 9 report.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Khối lượng
$13,517Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July 2026 employment report showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of gains near 80,000, anchors trader positioning for the August unemployment rate. The July rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, driven primarily by a contraction in labor force participation to 61.4% rather than broad hiring strength, with weakness concentrated in government, retail, and leisure sectors. This data has tilted market-implied odds toward a narrow cluster around 4.1% and 4.2%, reflecting uncertainty over whether the cooling trend will stabilize or accelerate amid still-elevated inflation readings. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and August employment indicators that could shift consensus on the path toward the September 9 report.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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