Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” commands overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the Billboard Hot 100’s top spot the week of September 26, driven by its unmatched multi-week dominance across streaming, sales, and radio. The track has held No. 1 for 22 weeks through mid-September 2026, earned Song of the Summer honors, and posted hundreds of millions of streams alongside steady digital sales and broad airplay that includes pop formats. Recent charts confirm it leads the latest tracking period with no sign of slippage, while competitors like Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You” and Morgan Wallen’s “Been By Now” sit lower. An upset would require an unprecedented late surge from a new release or viral track in the final days of the tracking window, a scenario with little precedent amid the song’s consistent metrics.