**Severe economic and energy pressures, including repeated nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages, and widespread shortages of food and medicine, have intensified in 2026 under tightened U.S. sanctions and an oil blockade.** These conditions have fueled localized protests such as cacerolazos and demonstrations across Havana and other areas, with NGOs documenting hundreds of events in the first half of the year. However, the Cuban Communist Party government under Miguel Díaz-Canel has maintained control through its security apparatus, military cohesion, and repression, preventing protests from scaling into a sustained challenge capable of forcing regime change. U.S. policy has emphasized economic attrition and sanctions targeting officials, entities, and sectors, alongside efforts to identify potential internal successors, rather than immediate military action. Statements from administration figures have adjusted timelines, with expectations now centered on placing Cuba on an "irreversible path" toward change by the end of the current term rather than rapid collapse. The regime's centralized institutions, limited organized opposition, and ongoing emigration have further buffered against internal fracture. Recent months show stalled negotiations, continued sanctions, and no decisive events tipping the balance toward regime fall by year-end, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the high "No" probability. Structural resilience and the absence of elite splits or mass mobilization remain the dominant factors sustaining the current outlook.