**Diddy's 50-month federal sentence, handed down in October 2025 after convictions on two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution, anchors the market at roughly 80% for "No."** Bureau of Prisons projections place his full release in January or February 2028, even after repeated adjustments for good-time credits and RDAP program participation. Fluctuations in those dates throughout 2026 have stayed well beyond December 31, 2026, reflecting standard application of federal guidelines rather than any accelerated pathway. Ongoing appeals focus on sentence length and the judge's consideration of acquitted conduct, but these proceedings typically extend rather than shorten time served. Recent prison incidents, including a reported fight and temporary solitary confinement, have produced only minor date tweaks without altering the overall timeline. Speculation around possible clemency has surfaced but lacks confirmed action that would override the projected 2028 exit. Civil suits and new allegations continue, yet none currently intersect with the federal custody clock in a way that would trigger release this year. Traders view a 2026 exit as requiring an extraordinary development—such as a successful early-release motion or executive intervention—not supported by present facts or historical precedent for similar cases.