**Recent diplomatic actions by EU states have targeted Russian embassy staff over espionage and hybrid threats but stopped short of expelling ambassadors.** Hungary’s new government expelled ten Russian diplomats on September 8, 2026, after determining their activities violated the Vienna Convention; the Russian ambassador in Budapest was informed but not removed, and officials explicitly stated the step would not break diplomatic relations. Similar targeted removals occurred earlier, including Austria’s expulsion of three diplomats in May and Italy’s ouster of two military attachés in July, again without touching ambassadors. Poland has urged broader reductions in Russian diplomatic presence across the EU, citing intelligence concerns, while incidents such as the alleged Leipzig drone plot have prompted summonses and additional staff cuts in Germany and elsewhere. These moves reflect ongoing security friction tied to the Ukraine conflict and hybrid activities, yet they remain calibrated to avoid the sharper escalation of ambassador expulsions, which historically trigger reciprocal measures and deeper rifts. With roughly three months left in 2026 and no verified signals of ambassador-level actions, traders assign a 61% probability that no EU country will take that step by year-end.