Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record domestic haul exceeding $956 million, paired with a $2.5 billion worldwide total from its July release, has locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability. The Tom Holland-led Marvel entry delivered the biggest opening weekend ever and sustained strong legs through the fall, far outpacing competitors like The Odyssey and Toy Story 5 that trail well behind on the 2026 calendar-year chart. Avengers: Doomsday’s December slot offers the only realistic path to an upset, yet even optimistic presale tracking leaves it with little margin to close the gap before year-end. Market pricing reflects the film’s unmatched early momentum and limited remaining upside for later releases.