Latest ensemble forecasts from regional and global models indicate a highest temperature in Chengdu on October 4 most likely between 24–26 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle, and moderate westerly winds that limit daytime heating in the Sichuan Basin. These conditions stem from a transitioning autumn pattern with higher humidity and suppressed solar radiation compared to clearer periods earlier in the week. Official observations will come from the primary Chengdu meteorological station, where urban effects and exact timing of any showers introduce small uncertainty in the daily maximum. Updated model runs and China Meteorological Administration briefings ahead of the date remain the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning around these closely matched outcomes.