Real-time meteorological observations and official forecasts from agencies like AEMET have aligned on a daily maximum of 24°C for Madrid on October 4, 2026, driving the market's near-certain consensus at that level. Mild autumn conditions with afternoon thunderstorms and light easterly winds allowed temperatures to peak in the early afternoon before cooling, consistent with model consensus and station data showing a steady climb toward that threshold without exceeding it. Historical October averages around 20–22°C provide context for this slightly elevated reading. Final verified measurements could shift the outcome only in rare cases of station discrepancies or post-processing revisions, though current evidence makes such adjustments unlikely.