Recent weather models for Mexico City on October 10 point to a daytime high of 22–23°C as the most probable outcome, driven by lingering moisture, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit solar heating. At the city’s 2,240 m elevation, baseline October highs average near 22–24°C, but persistent convective activity tied to the end of the rainy season reduces insolation and caps afternoon peaks. Forecast spreads arise mainly from differences in rain timing and intensity across guidance, with heavier midday precipitation favoring the lower end of the range. Traders’ near-even split between 22°C and 23°C reflects this narrow uncertainty window ahead of final model runs and observational updates.