Current forecast models from sources like the Global Forecast System indicate a high-pressure system dominating central Europe, advecting cooler polar maritime air into Warsaw and limiting daytime warming on October 17, with most runs converging on a maximum of 11–13 °C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds. Trader consensus, reflected in the 30.5 % probability for 13 °C as the mode, aligns with these outputs while the broad distribution across 11–14 °C captures remaining ensemble spread from minor variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any subtle frontal timing. Historical October maxima average near 12–14 °C, but the current setup favors the lower end of that range; updated model runs and observational adjustments in the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.