Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.