The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who secured the nomination on 10 September and received an endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein. Recent Camden ward results show the Greens narrowing Labour’s lead to single digits in several areas, reflecting local strength on housing, environment, and protest issues that could consolidate left-leaning votes. Traders price Green share outcomes tightly clustered between 20% and 35% because by-election turnout often amplifies opposition swings yet Labour retains structural advantages in a historically safe seat; further separation would likely require clearer polling signals on Polanski’s personal appeal or shifts in national Labour support before nominations close on 15 September.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật<20% 27%
30-35% 23%
25-30% 21%
20-25% 20%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
27%
20-25%
20%
25-30%
29%
30-35%
27%
35-40%
15%
40%+
12%
<20% 27%
30-35% 23%
25-30% 21%
20-25% 20%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
$19 KL.
27%
20-25%
$39 KL.
20%
25-30%
$39 KL.
29%
30-35%
$58 KL.
27%
35-40%
$19 KL.
15%
40%+
$39 KL.
12%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who secured the nomination on 10 September and received an endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein. Recent Camden ward results show the Greens narrowing Labour’s lead to single digits in several areas, reflecting local strength on housing, environment, and protest issues that could consolidate left-leaning votes. Traders price Green share outcomes tightly clustered between 20% and 35% because by-election turnout often amplifies opposition swings yet Labour retains structural advantages in a historically safe seat; further separation would likely require clearer polling signals on Polanski’s personal appeal or shifts in national Labour support before nominations close on 15 September.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$213Ngày kết thúc
Oct 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who secured the nomination on 10 September and received an endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein. Recent Camden ward results show the Greens narrowing Labour’s lead to single digits in several areas, reflecting local strength on housing, environment, and protest issues that could consolidate left-leaning votes. Traders price Green share outcomes tightly clustered between 20% and 35% because by-election turnout often amplifies opposition swings yet Labour retains structural advantages in a historically safe seat; further separation would likely require clearer polling signals on Polanski’s personal appeal or shifts in national Labour support before nominations close on 15 September.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Khối lượng
$213Ngày kết thúc
Oct 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who secured the nomination on 10 September and received an endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein. Recent Camden ward results show the Greens narrowing Labour’s lead to single digits in several areas, reflecting local strength on housing, environment, and protest issues that could consolidate left-leaning votes. Traders price Green share outcomes tightly clustered between 20% and 35% because by-election turnout often amplifies opposition swings yet Labour retains structural advantages in a historically safe seat; further separation would likely require clearer polling signals on Polanski’s personal appeal or shifts in national Labour support before nominations close on 15 September.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp