Trump’s close ties to FIFA President Gianni Infantino and his administration’s high-profile World Cup task force have fueled trader expectations that he will make at least one appearance, yet recent reports confirm he is skipping the United States’ opening match against Paraguay. With the tournament kicking off imminently and no firm schedule released for additional games, market sentiment splits between one or two appearances, reflecting uncertainty over how many high-profile fixtures—such as knockout rounds or the final—align with presidential priorities and security logistics. Historical precedent for sitting U.S. presidents at major sporting events, combined with Trump’s pattern of selective visibility at global spectacles, keeps probabilities for three or more matches lower while the slim chance of zero attendance remains a distant outlier. Upcoming announcements around the draw and early results will likely serve as the next catalysts shifting these closely contested odds.