Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to fewer than 10 posts by the Khamenei account in the August 4–11 window, reflecting the leader’s established pattern of infrequent direct X activity in favor of state-media statements. Recent months have featured sporadic messages tied to major developments such as succession following Ali Khamenei’s death, retaliatory positioning after U.S.–Israel strikes, and Strait of Hormuz policy signals issued through Mojtaba Khamenei’s accounts. With no scheduled high-profile events, summits, or confirmed escalations inside the resolution period, markets price limited output as the baseline. Separation could occur from verified diplomatic breakthroughs, military exchanges, or official addresses that typically trigger additional verified posts across official handles.