The recall of former mayor Aleksander Miszalski in May 2026 created an open seat for the September 27 first-round vote, drawing a crowded field of candidates from Civic Coalition, Law and Justice, New Left, independents, and smaller parties. June polling showed Łukasz Gibała ahead at 17-22 percent, followed by Daria Gosek-Popiołek near 13-14 percent and Michał Drewnicki around 8-13 percent, with substantial undecided voters and the rest fragmented across more than a dozen names. This broad dispersion of support, absent a dominant frontrunner or consolidated coalitions, sustains tight implied probabilities across contenders in the prediction market. Further candidate announcements, party endorsements, or turnout shifts before the first round could consolidate backing and widen gaps ahead of any potential runoff.