Łukasz Gibała leads trader consensus in the Kraków mayoral election market, reflecting his consistent first-round polling advantage and established local profile as an independent candidate backed by the Kraków for Residents committee. The September 27, 2026 first-round vote follows the May 2026 recall referendum that removed incumbent Aleksander Miszalski, opening an early contest where Gibała benefits from name recognition after his narrow 2024 runoff defeat. Recent IBRiS and other surveys place him ahead of Monika Piątkowska (KO-PSL alliance), Daria Gosek-Popiołek (Lewica), Michał Drewnicki (PiS), and a fragmented field of independents and minor-party contenders, with no rival consolidating comparable support. Gibała’s August 2026 candidacy announcement further solidified positioning ahead of the vote. Traders price these dynamics as the primary drivers of current implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtŁukasz Gibała 69%
Monika Piątkowska 24%
Aleksandra Owca 5.3%
Jan Hoffman 4.6%
$17,238 KL.
$17,238 KL.
Łukasz Gibała
69%
Monika Piątkowska
24%
Aleksandra Owca
5%
Jan Hoffman
5%
Łukasz Wantuch
5%
Daria Gosek-Popiołek
3%
Marianna Schreiber
2%
Marian Banaś
1%
Grażyna Zofia Świat
1%
Rafał Sonik
1%
Marta Ratuszyńska
1%
Paweł Śliz
<1%
Michał Drewnicki
<1%
Bartosz Bocheńczak
<1%
Rafał Komarewicz
6%
Sławomir Pietrzyk
<1%
Michał Klimek
<1%
Łukasz Gibała 69%
Monika Piątkowska 24%
Aleksandra Owca 5.3%
Jan Hoffman 4.6%
$17,238 KL.
$17,238 KL.
Łukasz Gibała
69%
Monika Piątkowska
24%
Aleksandra Owca
5%
Jan Hoffman
5%
Łukasz Wantuch
5%
Daria Gosek-Popiołek
3%
Marianna Schreiber
2%
Marian Banaś
1%
Grażyna Zofia Świat
1%
Rafał Sonik
1%
Marta Ratuszyńska
1%
Paweł Śliz
<1%
Michał Drewnicki
<1%
Bartosz Bocheńczak
<1%
Rafał Komarewicz
6%
Sławomir Pietrzyk
<1%
Michał Klimek
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Thị trường mở: Aug 6, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Łukasz Gibała leads trader consensus in the Kraków mayoral election market, reflecting his consistent first-round polling advantage and established local profile as an independent candidate backed by the Kraków for Residents committee. The September 27, 2026 first-round vote follows the May 2026 recall referendum that removed incumbent Aleksander Miszalski, opening an early contest where Gibała benefits from name recognition after his narrow 2024 runoff defeat. Recent IBRiS and other surveys place him ahead of Monika Piątkowska (KO-PSL alliance), Daria Gosek-Popiołek (Lewica), Michał Drewnicki (PiS), and a fragmented field of independents and minor-party contenders, with no rival consolidating comparable support. Gibała’s August 2026 candidacy announcement further solidified positioning ahead of the vote. Traders price these dynamics as the primary drivers of current implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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