Current ensemble forecasts from sources including Open-Meteo and regional models point to an overnight low near 24–25°C for Guangzhou on October 17 under persistent easterly flow and subtropical high pressure, with light showers possible but limited cooling effect. Trader consensus, reflected in the near-even implied probabilities for 19°C or below versus 24°C, incorporates uncertainty from potential late model adjustments, variable cloud cover, or localized rain timing that could nudge the minimum downward. Historical October averages near 21°C provide context, yet recent observations show warmer baselines. Updated NMC guidance and final model runs expected within 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around the daily minimum threshold.