Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a daily minimum near 19–22°C for Wuhan on October 17, driven by southerly flow ahead of a frontal passage that brings daytime highs near 32°C before overnight cooling and moderate rain develop. Wind shifts from southeast to north, combined with increasing cloud cover and precipitation timing after sunset, create the main uncertainty in how low readings fall, as earlier or heavier rain could suppress the minimum while clearer breaks might allow slightly cooler values. This explains the tight market split between 21°C and the 17°C-or-below outcome, with traders weighting the latest model runs and historical October variability in central China’s transitional autumn patterns. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the range.