Stephen Curry’s deep loyalty to the Golden State Warriors and repeated public statements about finishing his career in one jersey underpin the 97.9% implied probability he stays. The 38-year-old enters the final year of his $62.6 million deal and becomes extension-eligible August 29 for up to two additional seasons at roughly $137 million; Warriors GM Mike Dunleavy and owner Joe Lacob have signaled they will accommodate any terms Curry wants while rejecting trade speculation outright. Recent roster additions and Steve Kerr’s extension reinforce organizational stability around the point guard who has averaged 26-plus points in recent seasons. The only plausible shifts involve a severely disappointing 2026-27 campaign marked by major injuries or another quiet offseason that prompts Curry to forgo an extension and test unrestricted free agency in 2027.