Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th Congressional District established the current trader consensus around a sub-5% margin. Official tallies showed her securing roughly 49.4% to incumbent Adriano Espaillat’s 45.9%, a 3.5-point edge driven by strong support among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters in upper Manhattan. Endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and progressive groups helped mobilize turnout in a race that also featured divides over housing, immigration, and foreign policy. With nearly all votes counted and results certified weeks ago, scenarios that could push the margin above 5% remain limited to improbable late adjustments during final certification or a successful recount challenge, neither of which has materialized.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAvila Chevalier <5% 98.4%
Avila Chevalier 5–10% 1.6%
Avila Chevalier 10%+ 1.3%
Other <1%
$89,667 KL.
$89,667 KL.
Jun 23, 2026
Avila Chevalier 10%+
1%
Avila Chevalier 5–10%
2%
Avila Chevalier <5%
98%
Other
<1%
Avila Chevalier <5% 98.4%
Avila Chevalier 5–10% 1.6%
Avila Chevalier 10%+ 1.3%
Other <1%
$89,667 KL.
$89,667 KL.
Jun 23, 2026
Avila Chevalier 10%+
$5,976 KL.
1%
Avila Chevalier 5–10%
$7,521 KL.
2%
Avila Chevalier <5%
$21,705 KL.
98%
Other
$2,194 KL.
<1%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th Congressional District established the current trader consensus around a sub-5% margin. Official tallies showed her securing roughly 49.4% to incumbent Adriano Espaillat’s 45.9%, a 3.5-point edge driven by strong support among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters in upper Manhattan. Endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and progressive groups helped mobilize turnout in a race that also featured divides over housing, immigration, and foreign policy. With nearly all votes counted and results certified weeks ago, scenarios that could push the margin above 5% remain limited to improbable late adjustments during final certification or a successful recount challenge, neither of which has materialized.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Thị trường mở: Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$89,667Ngày kết thúc
Jun 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th Congressional District established the current trader consensus around a sub-5% margin. Official tallies showed her securing roughly 49.4% to incumbent Adriano Espaillat’s 45.9%, a 3.5-point edge driven by strong support among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters in upper Manhattan. Endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and progressive groups helped mobilize turnout in a race that also featured divides over housing, immigration, and foreign policy. With nearly all votes counted and results certified weeks ago, scenarios that could push the margin above 5% remain limited to improbable late adjustments during final certification or a successful recount challenge, neither of which has materialized.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Khối lượng
$89,667Ngày kết thúc
Jun 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th Congressional District established the current trader consensus around a sub-5% margin. Official tallies showed her securing roughly 49.4% to incumbent Adriano Espaillat’s 45.9%, a 3.5-point edge driven by strong support among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters in upper Manhattan. Endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and progressive groups helped mobilize turnout in a race that also featured divides over housing, immigration, and foreign policy. With nearly all votes counted and results certified weeks ago, scenarios that could push the margin above 5% remain limited to improbable late adjustments during final certification or a successful recount challenge, neither of which has materialized.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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