Cait Conley's decisive victory in the June 23, 2026, NY-17 Democratic primary established her commanding position in the margin-of-victory market, with certified results showing her securing roughly 49-51% of the vote against Beth Davidson's 29-32% share and smaller totals for the remaining three candidates. The West Point graduate and former national security official consolidated support across all four counties in the district through a campaign focused on cost-of-living issues and national security credentials, outpacing competitors who drew more localized backing from Rockland and Westchester areas. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a margin exceeding 15 points because the gap held steady from late polling through final tallies, exceeding historical benchmarks for contested House primaries in suburban New York districts. Late certification adjustments or minor recount disputes remain the only realistic paths that could narrow the recorded spread, though the scale of Conley's lead makes such shifts improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNY-17 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
NY-17 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Conley 15%+ 97.7%
Conley 5–10% 3.9%
Conley 10–15% <1%
Conley <5% <1%
$56,861 KL.
$56,861 KL.
Jun 23, 2026
Conley 15%+
98%
Conley 10–15%
1%
Conley 5–10%
4%
Conley <5%
<1%
Conley 15%+ 97.7%
Conley 5–10% 3.9%
Conley 10–15% <1%
Conley <5% <1%
$56,861 KL.
$56,861 KL.
Jun 23, 2026
Conley 15%+
$21,052 KL.
98%
Conley 10–15%
$23,361 KL.
1%
Conley 5–10%
$5,033 KL.
4%
Conley <5%
$4,532 KL.
<1%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cait Conley's decisive victory in the June 23, 2026, NY-17 Democratic primary established her commanding position in the margin-of-victory market, with certified results showing her securing roughly 49-51% of the vote against Beth Davidson's 29-32% share and smaller totals for the remaining three candidates. The West Point graduate and former national security official consolidated support across all four counties in the district through a campaign focused on cost-of-living issues and national security credentials, outpacing competitors who drew more localized backing from Rockland and Westchester areas. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a margin exceeding 15 points because the gap held steady from late polling through final tallies, exceeding historical benchmarks for contested House primaries in suburban New York districts. Late certification adjustments or minor recount disputes remain the only realistic paths that could narrow the recorded spread, though the scale of Conley's lead makes such shifts improbable.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Thị trường mở: Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ET
Khối lượng
$56,861Ngày kết thúc
Jun 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cait Conley's decisive victory in the June 23, 2026, NY-17 Democratic primary established her commanding position in the margin-of-victory market, with certified results showing her securing roughly 49-51% of the vote against Beth Davidson's 29-32% share and smaller totals for the remaining three candidates. The West Point graduate and former national security official consolidated support across all four counties in the district through a campaign focused on cost-of-living issues and national security credentials, outpacing competitors who drew more localized backing from Rockland and Westchester areas. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a margin exceeding 15 points because the gap held steady from late polling through final tallies, exceeding historical benchmarks for contested House primaries in suburban New York districts. Late certification adjustments or minor recount disputes remain the only realistic paths that could narrow the recorded spread, though the scale of Conley's lead makes such shifts improbable.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Khối lượng
$56,861Ngày kết thúc
Jun 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cait Conley's decisive victory in the June 23, 2026, NY-17 Democratic primary established her commanding position in the margin-of-victory market, with certified results showing her securing roughly 49-51% of the vote against Beth Davidson's 29-32% share and smaller totals for the remaining three candidates. The West Point graduate and former national security official consolidated support across all four counties in the district through a campaign focused on cost-of-living issues and national security credentials, outpacing competitors who drew more localized backing from Rockland and Westchester areas. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a margin exceeding 15 points because the gap held steady from late polling through final tallies, exceeding historical benchmarks for contested House primaries in suburban New York districts. Late certification adjustments or minor recount disputes remain the only realistic paths that could narrow the recorded spread, though the scale of Conley's lead makes such shifts improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp