Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC not dissolving in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1. Core OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, swiftly demonstrated continuity through recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee decisions, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June announced May 3 and today's downward revision to 2026 global oil demand growth at 1.17 million bpd amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This skin-in-the-game pricing underscores sustained coordination on production quotas and market stability despite geopolitical strains from Iran tensions. Realistic challenges include cascading member exits, failed quota compliance, or prolonged Middle East conflicts eroding unity ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$16,734 KL.
$16,734 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,734 KL.
$16,734 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC not dissolving in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1. Core OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, swiftly demonstrated continuity through recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee decisions, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June announced May 3 and today's downward revision to 2026 global oil demand growth at 1.17 million bpd amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This skin-in-the-game pricing underscores sustained coordination on production quotas and market stability despite geopolitical strains from Iran tensions. Realistic challenges include cascading member exits, failed quota compliance, or prolonged Middle East conflicts eroding unity ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$16,734Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC not dissolving in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1. Core OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, swiftly demonstrated continuity through recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee decisions, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June announced May 3 and today's downward revision to 2026 global oil demand growth at 1.17 million bpd amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This skin-in-the-game pricing underscores sustained coordination on production quotas and market stability despite geopolitical strains from Iran tensions. Realistic challenges include cascading member exits, failed quota compliance, or prolonged Middle East conflicts eroding unity ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$16,734Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC not dissolving in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1. Core OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, swiftly demonstrated continuity through recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee decisions, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June announced May 3 and today's downward revision to 2026 global oil demand growth at 1.17 million bpd amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This skin-in-the-game pricing underscores sustained coordination on production quotas and market stability despite geopolitical strains from Iran tensions. Realistic challenges include cascading member exits, failed quota compliance, or prolonged Middle East conflicts eroding unity ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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