Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 5 decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent amid elevated fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions and broadening cost pressures, market pricing now assigns an 81.5 percent implied probability to no change at the June 16 meeting. Recent labor-market data and inflation readings show persistent but moderating pressures, supporting the central bank’s stance of monitoring the economic impact before further tightening. Futures markets reflect this cautious outlook, with the June cash-rate contract implying only a modest chance of another 25-basis-point increase, while a cut remains priced at negligible odds. Analysts note that upcoming inflation prints and any resolution signals from the regional conflict will be key swing factors ahead of the next policy statement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo Change 82%
Increase 21%
Decrease <1%
$25,472 KL.
$25,472 KL.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease
<1%
No Change
82%
Increase
21%
No Change 82%
Increase 21%
Decrease <1%
$25,472 KL.
$25,472 KL.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease
$7,827 KL.
<1%
No Change
$8,800 KL.
82%
Increase
$8,845 KL.
21%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 5 decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent amid elevated fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions and broadening cost pressures, market pricing now assigns an 81.5 percent implied probability to no change at the June 16 meeting. Recent labor-market data and inflation readings show persistent but moderating pressures, supporting the central bank’s stance of monitoring the economic impact before further tightening. Futures markets reflect this cautious outlook, with the June cash-rate contract implying only a modest chance of another 25-basis-point increase, while a cut remains priced at negligible odds. Analysts note that upcoming inflation prints and any resolution signals from the regional conflict will be key swing factors ahead of the next policy statement.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$25,472Ngày kết thúc
Jun 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 5 decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent amid elevated fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions and broadening cost pressures, market pricing now assigns an 81.5 percent implied probability to no change at the June 16 meeting. Recent labor-market data and inflation readings show persistent but moderating pressures, supporting the central bank’s stance of monitoring the economic impact before further tightening. Futures markets reflect this cautious outlook, with the June cash-rate contract implying only a modest chance of another 25-basis-point increase, while a cut remains priced at negligible odds. Analysts note that upcoming inflation prints and any resolution signals from the regional conflict will be key swing factors ahead of the next policy statement.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$25,472Ngày kết thúc
Jun 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 5 decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent amid elevated fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions and broadening cost pressures, market pricing now assigns an 81.5 percent implied probability to no change at the June 16 meeting. Recent labor-market data and inflation readings show persistent but moderating pressures, supporting the central bank’s stance of monitoring the economic impact before further tightening. Futures markets reflect this cautious outlook, with the June cash-rate contract implying only a modest chance of another 25-basis-point increase, while a cut remains priced at negligible odds. Analysts note that upcoming inflation prints and any resolution signals from the regional conflict will be key swing factors ahead of the next policy statement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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