SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and high capital expenditure relative to revenue growth anchor trader sentiment around the $1–1.75 trillion range for its end-September 2026 market cap. After peaking above $2 trillion following the June 2026 Nasdaq debut at $135 per share, the stock settled near $1.4–1.5 trillion by late July amid disclosure of $28.5 billion in first-half capex and negative free cash flow. Recent catalysts include the successful July Starship Flight 13 deployment of V3 Starlink satellites and the scheduled Flight 14 orbital attempt expected in September, alongside the Terafab semiconductor initiative with Tesla. With probabilities closely split between the $1–1.25 trillion and $1.5–1.75 trillion buckets, outcomes hinge on Starship execution milestones, Starlink capacity ramp, and any near-term earnings or lock-up developments that could shift multiples on projected 2026 revenue.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$1.50-$1.75T 48%
<$1.00T 19%
$1.75-$2.00T 14%
$1.00-$1.25T 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
19%
$1.00-$1.25T
13%
$1.25-$1.50T
13%
$1.50-$1.75T
48%
$1.75-$2.00T
14%
$2.00-$2.25T
12%
$2.25T+
13%
$1.50-$1.75T 48%
<$1.00T 19%
$1.75-$2.00T 14%
$1.00-$1.25T 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
$70 KL.
19%
$1.00-$1.25T
$32 KL.
13%
$1.25-$1.50T
$32 KL.
13%
$1.50-$1.75T
$32 KL.
48%
$1.75-$2.00T
$32 KL.
14%
$2.00-$2.25T
$32 KL.
12%
$2.25T+
$32 KL.
13%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and high capital expenditure relative to revenue growth anchor trader sentiment around the $1–1.75 trillion range for its end-September 2026 market cap. After peaking above $2 trillion following the June 2026 Nasdaq debut at $135 per share, the stock settled near $1.4–1.5 trillion by late July amid disclosure of $28.5 billion in first-half capex and negative free cash flow. Recent catalysts include the successful July Starship Flight 13 deployment of V3 Starlink satellites and the scheduled Flight 14 orbital attempt expected in September, alongside the Terafab semiconductor initiative with Tesla. With probabilities closely split between the $1–1.25 trillion and $1.5–1.75 trillion buckets, outcomes hinge on Starship execution milestones, Starlink capacity ramp, and any near-term earnings or lock-up developments that could shift multiples on projected 2026 revenue.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Thị trường mở: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Khối lượng
$262Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and high capital expenditure relative to revenue growth anchor trader sentiment around the $1–1.75 trillion range for its end-September 2026 market cap. After peaking above $2 trillion following the June 2026 Nasdaq debut at $135 per share, the stock settled near $1.4–1.5 trillion by late July amid disclosure of $28.5 billion in first-half capex and negative free cash flow. Recent catalysts include the successful July Starship Flight 13 deployment of V3 Starlink satellites and the scheduled Flight 14 orbital attempt expected in September, alongside the Terafab semiconductor initiative with Tesla. With probabilities closely split between the $1–1.25 trillion and $1.5–1.75 trillion buckets, outcomes hinge on Starship execution milestones, Starlink capacity ramp, and any near-term earnings or lock-up developments that could shift multiples on projected 2026 revenue.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Khối lượng
$262Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and high capital expenditure relative to revenue growth anchor trader sentiment around the $1–1.75 trillion range for its end-September 2026 market cap. After peaking above $2 trillion following the June 2026 Nasdaq debut at $135 per share, the stock settled near $1.4–1.5 trillion by late July amid disclosure of $28.5 billion in first-half capex and negative free cash flow. Recent catalysts include the successful July Starship Flight 13 deployment of V3 Starlink satellites and the scheduled Flight 14 orbital attempt expected in September, alongside the Terafab semiconductor initiative with Tesla. With probabilities closely split between the $1–1.25 trillion and $1.5–1.75 trillion buckets, outcomes hinge on Starship execution milestones, Starlink capacity ramp, and any near-term earnings or lock-up developments that could shift multiples on projected 2026 revenue.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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