Dubai's real estate market has cooled in 2026 amid geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict that began in late February, triggering a roughly 10% cumulative price adjustment and the first annual declines in residential values since 2021. ValuStrat and PIX indices show citywide prices down 3-5% year-over-year by August-September, with apartments leading the drop and transaction volumes falling sharply—Q3 sales value plunged about 45% from prior-year levels. Elevated new supply, projected at 60,000 units annually through 2028, is pressuring margins alongside selective buyer demand, though ultra-prime segments and off-plan activity remain resilient. Emaar executives anticipate a 5-10% full-year adjustment before rebalancing toward equilibrium in 2027, with market-implied odds reflecting these near-term headwinds against Dubai's structural affordability and capital inflows.