US military operations under Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyer transits through the Strait of Hormuz in early May amid Iranian missile and drone incidents, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning on which nations will deploy warships by the May 31 deadline. These actions, backed by over 100 aircraft and 15,000 personnel, directly address the effective blockade that has curtailed roughly 10 million barrels per day of Middle East oil exports since March, pushing EIA-modeled Brent crude to average near $106 per barrel through June. Heightened shipping risk premiums and tanker route volatility have amplified energy-sector equity swings, while UK destroyer commitments signal potential allied participation that could further stabilize or escalate flows. With resolution imminent, traders monitor any additional naval announcements or de-escalation talks for shifts in implied probabilities around sustained high oil prices and supply recovery.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
$1,010,695 KL.
May 31, 2026
United Kingdom
3%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
<1%
Japan
<1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
5%
Bahrain
1%
Qatar
1%
Kuwait
2%
Oman
1%
South Korea
1%
Australia
<1%
$1,010,695 KL.
United Kingdom
$162,951 KL.
3%
France
$96,016 KL.
4%
Germany
$166,771 KL.
1%
Italy
$74,400 KL.
1%
Netherlands
$50,968 KL.
<1%
Japan
$112,820 KL.
<1%
Canada
$19,730 KL.
<1%
India
$7,441 KL.
2%
Greece
$18,417 KL.
1%
Pakistan
$11,940 KL.
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,310 KL.
2%
UAE
$4,426 KL.
5%
Bahrain
$19,791 KL.
1%
Qatar
$5,816 KL.
1%
Kuwait
$3,325 KL.
2%
Oman
$4,506 KL.
1%
South Korea
$83,281 KL.
1%
Australia
$72,142 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US military operations under Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyer transits through the Strait of Hormuz in early May amid Iranian missile and drone incidents, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning on which nations will deploy warships by the May 31 deadline. These actions, backed by over 100 aircraft and 15,000 personnel, directly address the effective blockade that has curtailed roughly 10 million barrels per day of Middle East oil exports since March, pushing EIA-modeled Brent crude to average near $106 per barrel through June. Heightened shipping risk premiums and tanker route volatility have amplified energy-sector equity swings, while UK destroyer commitments signal potential allied participation that could further stabilize or escalate flows. With resolution imminent, traders monitor any additional naval announcements or de-escalation talks for shifts in implied probabilities around sustained high oil prices and supply recovery.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Thị trường mở: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,010,695Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US military operations under Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyer transits through the Strait of Hormuz in early May amid Iranian missile and drone incidents, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning on which nations will deploy warships by the May 31 deadline. These actions, backed by over 100 aircraft and 15,000 personnel, directly address the effective blockade that has curtailed roughly 10 million barrels per day of Middle East oil exports since March, pushing EIA-modeled Brent crude to average near $106 per barrel through June. Heightened shipping risk premiums and tanker route volatility have amplified energy-sector equity swings, while UK destroyer commitments signal potential allied participation that could further stabilize or escalate flows. With resolution imminent, traders monitor any additional naval announcements or de-escalation talks for shifts in implied probabilities around sustained high oil prices and supply recovery.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Khối lượng
$1,010,695Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military operations under Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyer transits through the Strait of Hormuz in early May amid Iranian missile and drone incidents, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning on which nations will deploy warships by the May 31 deadline. These actions, backed by over 100 aircraft and 15,000 personnel, directly address the effective blockade that has curtailed roughly 10 million barrels per day of Middle East oil exports since March, pushing EIA-modeled Brent crude to average near $106 per barrel through June. Heightened shipping risk premiums and tanker route volatility have amplified energy-sector equity swings, while UK destroyer commitments signal potential allied participation that could further stabilize or escalate flows. With resolution imminent, traders monitor any additional naval announcements or de-escalation talks for shifts in implied probabilities around sustained high oil prices and supply recovery.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp