The 84% market-implied probability on "No" for a public exhibition of the Leonardo-attributed Salvator Mundi by December 31, 2026, stems from its extended absence from view since the 2017 auction and the cancellation of its planned Louvre Abu Dhabi loan. Owned by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the work remains in secure storage, most recently reported in a Geneva freeport, with Saudi plans centering it in a future Riyadh museum tied to Vision 2030 rather than any short-term loan or temporary display. No museum announcements, guild or institutional previews, or credible reporting from outlets like The Art Newspaper have emerged to signal momentum, and construction timelines for the permanent venue extend well beyond year-end. Traders view the lack of near-term catalysts and historical pattern of delays as outweighing any speculative surprise appearance.