**Ronaldo serves as Portugal’s designated penalty taker at age 41 in his sixth and final World Cup, yet historical precedent heavily favors the “No” outcome.** Across five prior tournaments he converted just three World Cup penalties total—one each in 2006, 2018, and 2022—never reaching two in a single edition. Portugal’s Group K schedule against DR Congo, Uzbekistan, and Colombia begins June 17, limiting early opportunities, while deeper runs into knockout stages would require consistent spot-kick situations that have proven rare for the side. Recent club and international form shows Ronaldo retains strong conversion rates on penalties, but reports of occasional missed chances and competition for duties from teammates like Bruno Fernandes add uncertainty. Speculation around favorable officiating akin to past tournaments remains unproven, and the short group-stage window plus Portugal’s typical style reduce the likelihood of multiple awarded kicks. The 72% “No” pricing reflects traders’ weighting of these established patterns over optimistic projections for an aging forward in a high-stakes, low-volume environment.