Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and its Sentry impact-assessment system has identified no large near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton energy in 2026, driving the 98.7% “No” odds. Continuous sky surveys, refined orbital calculations, and rapid follow-up on new detections have repeatedly ruled out threats, consistent with the agency’s assessment of no significant impact risk for over a century. Traders assign near-certainty to this outcome because even newly discovered asteroids, such as 2026 JH2, show zero probability after initial tracking. Remote scenarios that could still shift results include an undetected object arriving with little warning or an unexpected orbital perturbation, though both remain statistically negligible given current observational coverage and historical detection rates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
1% 機率
$116,322 交易量
$116,322 交易量
2026-12-31
是
1% 機率
$116,322 交易量
$116,322 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and its Sentry impact-assessment system has identified no large near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton energy in 2026, driving the 98.7% “No” odds. Continuous sky surveys, refined orbital calculations, and rapid follow-up on new detections have repeatedly ruled out threats, consistent with the agency’s assessment of no significant impact risk for over a century. Traders assign near-certainty to this outcome because even newly discovered asteroids, such as 2026 JH2, show zero probability after initial tracking. Remote scenarios that could still shift results include an undetected object arriving with little warning or an unexpected orbital perturbation, though both remain statistically negligible given current observational coverage and historical detection rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$116,322結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and its Sentry impact-assessment system has identified no large near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton energy in 2026, driving the 98.7% “No” odds. Continuous sky surveys, refined orbital calculations, and rapid follow-up on new detections have repeatedly ruled out threats, consistent with the agency’s assessment of no significant impact risk for over a century. Traders assign near-certainty to this outcome because even newly discovered asteroids, such as 2026 JH2, show zero probability after initial tracking. Remote scenarios that could still shift results include an undetected object arriving with little warning or an unexpected orbital perturbation, though both remain statistically negligible given current observational coverage and historical detection rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$116,322結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and its Sentry impact-assessment system has identified no large near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton energy in 2026, driving the 98.7% “No” odds. Continuous sky surveys, refined orbital calculations, and rapid follow-up on new detections have repeatedly ruled out threats, consistent with the agency’s assessment of no significant impact risk for over a century. Traders assign near-certainty to this outcome because even newly discovered asteroids, such as 2026 JH2, show zero probability after initial tracking. Remote scenarios that could still shift results include an undetected object arriving with little warning or an unexpected orbital perturbation, though both remain statistically negligible given current observational coverage and historical detection rates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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