The overwhelming scientific consensus, led by USGS assessments, drives the 98.8% market-implied probability against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027. No known fault on Earth is long or deep enough to release the required energy, as magnitude scales directly with rupture area; the 1960 Chile event at 9.5 remains the historical maximum on a roughly 1,000-kilometer megathrust. With only months remaining in the resolution window, ongoing global seismic monitoring shows no precursors or model shifts capable of producing such an event. While extremely unlikely, revised magnitude calculations for a borderline 9.7+ quake or unforeseen non-tectonic triggers could theoretically alter outcomes, though these fall well outside observed geophysical limits.