The strong trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems primarily from the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, with global recurrence estimates of one to three per century and none recorded since the 2011 Tohoku quake. USGS data show the largest recent event was an 8.8 in Kamchatka in July 2025, while 2026 activity has remained below 8.0, with no ongoing subduction-zone strain accumulation signaling imminent rupture on monitored faults. The remaining months in 2026 further compress the already low probability window. Realistic shifts could occur only if new seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS detects rapid foreshock sequences or accelerated slip in high-risk zones such as the Cascadia or Peru-Chile trenches, though current observations indicate no such precursors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
7% 機率
$273,789 交易量
$273,789 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 機率
$273,789 交易量
$273,789 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The strong trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems primarily from the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, with global recurrence estimates of one to three per century and none recorded since the 2011 Tohoku quake. USGS data show the largest recent event was an 8.8 in Kamchatka in July 2025, while 2026 activity has remained below 8.0, with no ongoing subduction-zone strain accumulation signaling imminent rupture on monitored faults. The remaining months in 2026 further compress the already low probability window. Realistic shifts could occur only if new seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS detects rapid foreshock sequences or accelerated slip in high-risk zones such as the Cascadia or Peru-Chile trenches, though current observations indicate no such precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$273,789結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The strong trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems primarily from the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, with global recurrence estimates of one to three per century and none recorded since the 2011 Tohoku quake. USGS data show the largest recent event was an 8.8 in Kamchatka in July 2025, while 2026 activity has remained below 8.0, with no ongoing subduction-zone strain accumulation signaling imminent rupture on monitored faults. The remaining months in 2026 further compress the already low probability window. Realistic shifts could occur only if new seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS detects rapid foreshock sequences or accelerated slip in high-risk zones such as the Cascadia or Peru-Chile trenches, though current observations indicate no such precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$273,789結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems primarily from the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, with global recurrence estimates of one to three per century and none recorded since the 2011 Tohoku quake. USGS data show the largest recent event was an 8.8 in Kamchatka in July 2025, while 2026 activity has remained below 8.0, with no ongoing subduction-zone strain accumulation signaling imminent rupture on monitored faults. The remaining months in 2026 further compress the already low probability window. Realistic shifts could occur only if new seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS detects rapid foreshock sequences or accelerated slip in high-risk zones such as the Cascadia or Peru-Chile trenches, though current observations indicate no such precursors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions