Skip to main content
icon for Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?
Politics·Arizona

Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?

icon for Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?
Politics·Arizona

Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?

0% 機率
Polymarket
最新
0% 機率
Polymarket
最新
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/). Arizona voters will decide the measure on the November 2026 ballot after legislative referral cleared Republican majorities in both chambers earlier this year. The proposal would require school sports teams and certain athletic facilities to be designated by biological sex at birth, addressing prior court blocks on a 2022 law. A pending lawsuit challenges the measure’s ballot placement on procedural grounds, while a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling upholding similar restrictions in other states has shaped debate. Competitive balance stems from Arizona’s divided government, strong mobilization by both parental-rights advocates and LGBTQ+ organizations, and uncertainty over voter turnout on the issue. Resolution depends on the lawsuit’s outcome, campaign intensity, and any late shifts in public opinion before Election Day.

Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
交易量
$60
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/). Arizona voters will decide the measure on the November 2026 ballot after legislative referral cleared Republican majorities in both chambers earlier this year. The proposal would require school sports teams and certain athletic facilities to be designated by biological sex at birth, addressing prior court blocks on a 2022 law. A pending lawsuit challenges the measure’s ballot placement on procedural grounds, while a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling upholding similar restrictions in other states has shaped debate. Competitive balance stems from Arizona’s divided government, strong mobilization by both parental-rights advocates and LGBTQ+ organizations, and uncertainty over voter turnout on the issue. Resolution depends on the lawsuit’s outcome, campaign intensity, and any late shifts in public opinion before Election Day.

Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
交易量
$60
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 37% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 37¢, the market collectively assigns a 37% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?" is 37% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 37% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.