Elevated energy prices from ongoing geopolitical pressures have pushed euro-area headline inflation to 3.8 percent, creating upside risks that markets price as supporting a December 2026 deposit-rate hike to 2.75 percent. Professional forecasters and surveys show modal expectations stabilizing near that level through early 2027, with limited evidence of second-round wage or underlying inflation effects so far. The ECB’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance and recent tightening in financial conditions reinforce trader consensus for no further change at the February 2027 meeting, while modest probabilities of additional tightening reflect uncertainty over whether energy shocks will persist or transmit more broadly.