Mount Etna has maintained continuous effusive and Strombolian activity through 2026, including lava flows from fissures in the Valle del Leone and Bove and explosive episodes at the Voragine crater that have generated ash plumes reaching 7 km. Official monitoring by Italy’s INGV shows sustained tremor and intermittent fountaining with ashfall affecting Catania airspace, yet these events align with the volcano’s typical pattern of moderate, short-lived episodes rather than sustained higher explosivity. With the year more than halfway complete and no confirmed VEI 2+ paroxysms documented to date, trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” price appears driven by historical frequency data favoring smaller-scale output and the absence of rapid escalation indicators in recent model runs. Upcoming INGV updates on tremor trends and plume heights will provide key signals for any shift in implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna has maintained continuous effusive and Strombolian activity through 2026, including lava flows from fissures in the Valle del Leone and Bove and explosive episodes at the Voragine crater that have generated ash plumes reaching 7 km. Official monitoring by Italy’s INGV shows sustained tremor and intermittent fountaining with ashfall affecting Catania airspace, yet these events align with the volcano’s typical pattern of moderate, short-lived episodes rather than sustained higher explosivity. With the year more than halfway complete and no confirmed VEI 2+ paroxysms documented to date, trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” price appears driven by historical frequency data favoring smaller-scale output and the absence of rapid escalation indicators in recent model runs. Upcoming INGV updates on tremor trends and plume heights will provide key signals for any shift in implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
市場開放時間： Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
交易量
$21結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna has maintained continuous effusive and Strombolian activity through 2026, including lava flows from fissures in the Valle del Leone and Bove and explosive episodes at the Voragine crater that have generated ash plumes reaching 7 km. Official monitoring by Italy’s INGV shows sustained tremor and intermittent fountaining with ashfall affecting Catania airspace, yet these events align with the volcano’s typical pattern of moderate, short-lived episodes rather than sustained higher explosivity. With the year more than halfway complete and no confirmed VEI 2+ paroxysms documented to date, trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” price appears driven by historical frequency data favoring smaller-scale output and the absence of rapid escalation indicators in recent model runs. Upcoming INGV updates on tremor trends and plume heights will provide key signals for any shift in implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
交易量
$21結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna has maintained continuous effusive and Strombolian activity through 2026, including lava flows from fissures in the Valle del Leone and Bove and explosive episodes at the Voragine crater that have generated ash plumes reaching 7 km. Official monitoring by Italy’s INGV shows sustained tremor and intermittent fountaining with ashfall affecting Catania airspace, yet these events align with the volcano’s typical pattern of moderate, short-lived episodes rather than sustained higher explosivity. With the year more than halfway complete and no confirmed VEI 2+ paroxysms documented to date, trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” price appears driven by historical frequency data favoring smaller-scale output and the absence of rapid escalation indicators in recent model runs. Upcoming INGV updates on tremor trends and plume heights will provide key signals for any shift in implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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