Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive phase, marked by Strombolian explosions, lava effusion, and ash plumes from vents including Voragine crater, has produced measurable but mostly moderate activity monitored by INGV, with alert levels holding at yellow and recent intensity declining as of mid-August. Official data show fluctuating tremor and decreasing effusion rates without confirmed VEI 2+ thresholds of 0.001–0.01 km³ ejecta volume reached in prior episodes this year, supporting trader consensus favoring "No" at 57% implied probability. Historical patterns indicate Etna averages multiple VEI 1–2 events per decade, yet current conditions—waning magma supply and lack of major paroxysmal escalation—suggest limited potential for qualifying explosions before year-end unless new seismic or gas data indicate renewed pressurization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive phase, marked by Strombolian explosions, lava effusion, and ash plumes from vents including Voragine crater, has produced measurable but mostly moderate activity monitored by INGV, with alert levels holding at yellow and recent intensity declining as of mid-August. Official data show fluctuating tremor and decreasing effusion rates without confirmed VEI 2+ thresholds of 0.001–0.01 km³ ejecta volume reached in prior episodes this year, supporting trader consensus favoring "No" at 57% implied probability. Historical patterns indicate Etna averages multiple VEI 1–2 events per decade, yet current conditions—waning magma supply and lack of major paroxysmal escalation—suggest limited potential for qualifying explosions before year-end unless new seismic or gas data indicate renewed pressurization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
市場開放時間： Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
交易量
$21結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive phase, marked by Strombolian explosions, lava effusion, and ash plumes from vents including Voragine crater, has produced measurable but mostly moderate activity monitored by INGV, with alert levels holding at yellow and recent intensity declining as of mid-August. Official data show fluctuating tremor and decreasing effusion rates without confirmed VEI 2+ thresholds of 0.001–0.01 km³ ejecta volume reached in prior episodes this year, supporting trader consensus favoring "No" at 57% implied probability. Historical patterns indicate Etna averages multiple VEI 1–2 events per decade, yet current conditions—waning magma supply and lack of major paroxysmal escalation—suggest limited potential for qualifying explosions before year-end unless new seismic or gas data indicate renewed pressurization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
交易量
$21結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive phase, marked by Strombolian explosions, lava effusion, and ash plumes from vents including Voragine crater, has produced measurable but mostly moderate activity monitored by INGV, with alert levels holding at yellow and recent intensity declining as of mid-August. Official data show fluctuating tremor and decreasing effusion rates without confirmed VEI 2+ thresholds of 0.001–0.01 km³ ejecta volume reached in prior episodes this year, supporting trader consensus favoring "No" at 57% implied probability. Historical patterns indicate Etna averages multiple VEI 1–2 events per decade, yet current conditions—waning magma supply and lack of major paroxysmal escalation—suggest limited potential for qualifying explosions before year-end unless new seismic or gas data indicate renewed pressurization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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