Recent polling from Pew and Morning Consult places Republican support among Black registered voters in the 8-15% range for the 2026 midterms, with notable undecided shares, while party identification data shows roughly 14% of Black adults leaning Republican. These figures, alongside evidence of eroding 2024 gains amid economic pressures and approval ratings in the low teens, have kept the 12-13% and 18%+ outcomes nearly tied in trader consensus. Variations across surveys, including higher estimates from some generic ballot trackers, sustain uncertainty around turnout and messaging effects. Scheduled election timing and late-cycle economic data remain key variables that could shift final shares.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於12–13% 43%
8–9% 42%
少於8% 40%
10–11% 39%
最新
最新
2026-11-06
少於8%
40%
8–9%
42%
10–11%
39%
12–13%
43%
14–15%
39%
16–17%
39%
18%以上
39%
12–13% 43%
8–9% 42%
少於8% 40%
10–11% 39%
最新
最新
2026-11-06
少於8%
$0 交易量
40%
8–9%
$0 交易量
42%
10–11%
$0 交易量
39%
12–13%
$0 交易量
43%
14–15%
$0 交易量
39%
16–17%
$0 交易量
39%
18%以上
$0 交易量
39%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling from Pew and Morning Consult places Republican support among Black registered voters in the 8-15% range for the 2026 midterms, with notable undecided shares, while party identification data shows roughly 14% of Black adults leaning Republican. These figures, alongside evidence of eroding 2024 gains amid economic pressures and approval ratings in the low teens, have kept the 12-13% and 18%+ outcomes nearly tied in trader consensus. Variations across surveys, including higher estimates from some generic ballot trackers, sustain uncertainty around turnout and messaging effects. Scheduled election timing and late-cycle economic data remain key variables that could shift final shares.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling from Pew and Morning Consult places Republican support among Black registered voters in the 8-15% range for the 2026 midterms, with notable undecided shares, while party identification data shows roughly 14% of Black adults leaning Republican. These figures, alongside evidence of eroding 2024 gains amid economic pressures and approval ratings in the low teens, have kept the 12-13% and 18%+ outcomes nearly tied in trader consensus. Variations across surveys, including higher estimates from some generic ballot trackers, sustain uncertainty around turnout and messaging effects. Scheduled election timing and late-cycle economic data remain key variables that could shift final shares.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETRecent polling from Pew and Morning Consult places Republican support among Black registered voters in the 8-15% range for the 2026 midterms, with notable undecided shares, while party identification data shows roughly 14% of Black adults leaning Republican. These figures, alongside evidence of eroding 2024 gains amid economic pressures and approval ratings in the low teens, have kept the 12-13% and 18%+ outcomes nearly tied in trader consensus. Variations across surveys, including higher estimates from some generic ballot trackers, sustain uncertainty around turnout and messaging effects. Scheduled election timing and late-cycle economic data remain key variables that could shift final shares.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions