Skip to main content
icon for 2026年美國有多少個龍捲風？
氣候與科學·天氣

2026年美國有多少個龍捲風？

icon for 2026年美國有多少個龍捲風？
氣候與科學·天氣

2026年美國有多少個龍捲風？

1250+ 86%

1200–1249 8.2%

1150–1199 6.9%

1100–1149 3.6%

Polymarket

$81,752 交易量

1250+ 86%

1200–1249 8.2%

1150–1199 6.9%

1100–1149 3.6%

Polymarket

$81,752 交易量

少於950個

$23,720 交易量

1%

950–999

$3,618 交易量

<1%

1000–1049

$3,451 交易量

<1%

1050–1099

$9,172 交易量

<1%

1100–1149

$3,248 交易量

4%

1150–1199

$4,082 交易量

7%

1200–1249

$15,917 交易量

8%

1250+

$18,543 交易量

86%

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated 2026 U.S. tornado activity, with more than 1,135 confirmed reports through mid-August per National Weather Service and NOAA tracking, has driven the 1250+ outcome to 85.5% implied probability. Record counts in Illinois exceeding 200, alongside above-average Midwest and Plains outbreaks, reflect favorable atmospheric conditions including enhanced shear and instability that have outpaced the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200 tornadoes. Remaining summer and fall months could add further reports, though model consensus and historical seasonal decline after June support a total comfortably above 1,250 barring an unusually quiet period ahead.

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.

As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.

If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.

The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.

If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$81,752
結束日期
2027-01-10
市場開放時間
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated 2026 U.S. tornado activity, with more than 1,135 confirmed reports through mid-August per National Weather Service and NOAA tracking, has driven the 1250+ outcome to 85.5% implied probability. Record counts in Illinois exceeding 200, alongside above-average Midwest and Plains outbreaks, reflect favorable atmospheric conditions including enhanced shear and instability that have outpaced the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200 tornadoes. Remaining summer and fall months could add further reports, though model consensus and historical seasonal decline after June support a total comfortably above 1,250 barring an unusually quiet period ahead.

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.

As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.

If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.

The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.

If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$81,752
結束日期
2027-01-10
市場開放時間
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

相關

icon for Will 120 to 139 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?

Will 120 to 139 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?

33%
icon for 2026年8月全球氣溫將上升超過1.29ºC嗎？

2026年8月全球氣溫將上升超過1.29ºC嗎？

96%
是
icon for 2026年會成為有紀錄以來最熱的一年嗎？

2026年會成為有紀錄以來最熱的一年嗎？

69%
是

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年美國有多少個龍捲風？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1250+" at 86%, followed by "1200–1249" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年美國有多少個龍捲風？" has generated $81.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年美國有多少個龍捲風？," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年美國有多少個龍捲風？" is "1250+" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1200–1249" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年美國有多少個龍捲風？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.