High year-to-date counts exceeding 1,100 confirmed U.S. tornadoes as of mid-August 2026—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually—drive the 85.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ total. Illinois alone has surpassed 200 confirmed tornadoes, shattering prior state records amid persistent atmospheric conditions featuring enhanced low-level moisture, wind shear, and mesoscale convective systems that fueled multiple spring and early-summer outbreaks. NOAA and SPC data show this elevated activity extending typical seasonal patterns, with August–December historically adding 200–400 more tornadoes. While model consensus and jet-stream variability introduce some uncertainty for late-year counts, current observational trends and historical analogs position totals comfortably above 1,250 absent an abrupt reversal to below-average conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.6%
1150–1199 7.7%
1100–1149 3.8%
$81,752 交易量
$81,752 交易量
2027-01-10
少於950個
2%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
8%
1200–1249
9%
1250+
86%
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.6%
1150–1199 7.7%
1100–1149 3.8%
$81,752 交易量
$81,752 交易量
2027-01-10
少於950個
$23,720 交易量
2%
950–999
$3,618 交易量
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 交易量
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 交易量
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 交易量
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 交易量
8%
1200–1249
$15,917 交易量
9%
1250+
$18,543 交易量
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.High year-to-date counts exceeding 1,100 confirmed U.S. tornadoes as of mid-August 2026—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually—drive the 85.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ total. Illinois alone has surpassed 200 confirmed tornadoes, shattering prior state records amid persistent atmospheric conditions featuring enhanced low-level moisture, wind shear, and mesoscale convective systems that fueled multiple spring and early-summer outbreaks. NOAA and SPC data show this elevated activity extending typical seasonal patterns, with August–December historically adding 200–400 more tornadoes. While model consensus and jet-stream variability introduce some uncertainty for late-year counts, current observational trends and historical analogs position totals comfortably above 1,250 absent an abrupt reversal to below-average conditions.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市場開放時間： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
交易量
$81,752結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.High year-to-date counts exceeding 1,100 confirmed U.S. tornadoes as of mid-August 2026—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually—drive the 85.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ total. Illinois alone has surpassed 200 confirmed tornadoes, shattering prior state records amid persistent atmospheric conditions featuring enhanced low-level moisture, wind shear, and mesoscale convective systems that fueled multiple spring and early-summer outbreaks. NOAA and SPC data show this elevated activity extending typical seasonal patterns, with August–December historically adding 200–400 more tornadoes. While model consensus and jet-stream variability introduce some uncertainty for late-year counts, current observational trends and historical analogs position totals comfortably above 1,250 absent an abrupt reversal to below-average conditions.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$81,752結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High year-to-date counts exceeding 1,100 confirmed U.S. tornadoes as of mid-August 2026—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually—drive the 85.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ total. Illinois alone has surpassed 200 confirmed tornadoes, shattering prior state records amid persistent atmospheric conditions featuring enhanced low-level moisture, wind shear, and mesoscale convective systems that fueled multiple spring and early-summer outbreaks. NOAA and SPC data show this elevated activity extending typical seasonal patterns, with August–December historically adding 200–400 more tornadoes. While model consensus and jet-stream variability introduce some uncertainty for late-year counts, current observational trends and historical analogs position totals comfortably above 1,250 absent an abrupt reversal to below-average conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions