Early 2026 tornado activity has surged well ahead of climatological norms, with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts exceeding 550 confirmed tornadoes by mid-May against a typical year-to-date average near 300. Multiple March and April outbreaks, including strong events across the Midwest and Plains, have established this elevated pace and positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward totals above 1,250. Current ENSO-neutral conditions support ongoing instability before a likely transition to El Niño later in the season, which historically can suppress late-year activity. Traders are closely watching upcoming SPC and NOAA monthly updates through peak summer months for any signs of a slowdown that could alter the current high-count consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1250+ 81%
少於950個 4.2%
1050–1099 4.1%
1150–1199 3.9%
$72,212 交易量
$72,212 交易量
2027-01-10
少於950個
4%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
40%
1250+
81%
1250+ 81%
少於950個 4.2%
1050–1099 4.1%
1150–1199 3.9%
$72,212 交易量
$72,212 交易量
2027-01-10
少於950個
$22,427 交易量
4%
950–999
$2,976 交易量
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 交易量
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 交易量
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 交易量
3%
1150–1199
$2,650 交易量
4%
1200–1249
$15,173 交易量
40%
1250+
$16,681 交易量
81%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early 2026 tornado activity has surged well ahead of climatological norms, with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts exceeding 550 confirmed tornadoes by mid-May against a typical year-to-date average near 300. Multiple March and April outbreaks, including strong events across the Midwest and Plains, have established this elevated pace and positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward totals above 1,250. Current ENSO-neutral conditions support ongoing instability before a likely transition to El Niño later in the season, which historically can suppress late-year activity. Traders are closely watching upcoming SPC and NOAA monthly updates through peak summer months for any signs of a slowdown that could alter the current high-count consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市場開放時間： Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$72,212結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early 2026 tornado activity has surged well ahead of climatological norms, with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts exceeding 550 confirmed tornadoes by mid-May against a typical year-to-date average near 300. Multiple March and April outbreaks, including strong events across the Midwest and Plains, have established this elevated pace and positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward totals above 1,250. Current ENSO-neutral conditions support ongoing instability before a likely transition to El Niño later in the season, which historically can suppress late-year activity. Traders are closely watching upcoming SPC and NOAA monthly updates through peak summer months for any signs of a slowdown that could alter the current high-count consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$72,212結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early 2026 tornado activity has surged well ahead of climatological norms, with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts exceeding 550 confirmed tornadoes by mid-May against a typical year-to-date average near 300. Multiple March and April outbreaks, including strong events across the Midwest and Plains, have established this elevated pace and positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward totals above 1,250. Current ENSO-neutral conditions support ongoing instability before a likely transition to El Niño later in the season, which historically can suppress late-year activity. Traders are closely watching upcoming SPC and NOAA monthly updates through peak summer months for any signs of a slowdown that could alter the current high-count consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions