Democrats captured a House majority in the 2026 midterms, with final seat counts still being certified near 255 or slightly higher as of mid-November. Hakeem Jeffries, the current minority leader and unanimous Democratic nominee, faces no rival candidate for speaker despite a small group of incoming progressives withholding commitments pending legislative assurances. The Democratic caucus leadership vote scheduled for November 18-19 will clarify internal unity before the January 2027 floor ballot, where 218 votes are required. Trader pricing across the 244-259 range reflects uncertainty over exact final seat totals and the scale of any potential holdouts, while the absence of competing nominees limits downside risk below that band.