The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered rapid succession through Iran’s Assembly of Experts, resulting in the selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. Mojtaba has since remained largely absent from public view, issuing only written statements while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and figures such as Ahmad Vahidi have consolidated operational influence amid ongoing military and diplomatic pressures. This shift has produced competing signals from Iranian institutions, with some civilian negotiators engaging externally while hard-line military elements resist concessions. Traders assessing further leadership change by year-end weigh these internal power dynamics against the regime’s demonstrated ability to maintain core theocratic structures despite recent decapitation strikes and economic strain.