Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair on May 13 in a 54-45 vote positions him to lead the first FOMC meeting scheduled for mid-June. Traders assign a 97.4 percent probability that he will not lower the federal funds rate at that gathering, reflecting persistent inflation near 4 percent, steady April employment gains, and Warsh’s record favoring tighter policy. Recent data releases have reinforced expectations that the central bank will maintain its current stance to anchor inflation expectations amid pressure from the White House for easing. The implied probability remains elevated because any near-term cut would require a sharp, unexpected improvement in inflation readings or an abrupt deterioration in labor-market indicators before the June decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$18,055 交易量
$18,055 交易量
$18,055 交易量
$18,055 交易量
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair on May 13 in a 54-45 vote positions him to lead the first FOMC meeting scheduled for mid-June. Traders assign a 97.4 percent probability that he will not lower the federal funds rate at that gathering, reflecting persistent inflation near 4 percent, steady April employment gains, and Warsh’s record favoring tighter policy. Recent data releases have reinforced expectations that the central bank will maintain its current stance to anchor inflation expectations amid pressure from the White House for easing. The implied probability remains elevated because any near-term cut would require a sharp, unexpected improvement in inflation readings or an abrupt deterioration in labor-market indicators before the June decision.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
市場開放時間： Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
交易量
$18,055市場開放時間
Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair on May 13 in a 54-45 vote positions him to lead the first FOMC meeting scheduled for mid-June. Traders assign a 97.4 percent probability that he will not lower the federal funds rate at that gathering, reflecting persistent inflation near 4 percent, steady April employment gains, and Warsh’s record favoring tighter policy. Recent data releases have reinforced expectations that the central bank will maintain its current stance to anchor inflation expectations amid pressure from the White House for easing. The implied probability remains elevated because any near-term cut would require a sharp, unexpected improvement in inflation readings or an abrupt deterioration in labor-market indicators before the June decision.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$18,055市場開放時間
Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair on May 13 in a 54-45 vote positions him to lead the first FOMC meeting scheduled for mid-June. Traders assign a 97.4 percent probability that he will not lower the federal funds rate at that gathering, reflecting persistent inflation near 4 percent, steady April employment gains, and Warsh’s record favoring tighter policy. Recent data releases have reinforced expectations that the central bank will maintain its current stance to anchor inflation expectations amid pressure from the White House for easing. The implied probability remains elevated because any near-term cut would require a sharp, unexpected improvement in inflation readings or an abrupt deterioration in labor-market indicators before the June decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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