Recent Met Office guidance highlights clearer skies overnight after light evening rain, promoting radiative cooling under light northerly winds and yielding a minimum temperature near 6–12°C depending on exact station and urban heat effects. This aligns with model consensus showing temperatures bottoming out in the early morning hours before rising to daytime highs near 21–23°C. Trader focus on 12°C as the leading outcome reflects typical late-September baselines for London (historical averages around 10–13°C) combined with limited model spread on wind and cloud cover, while probabilities near 50% for 8–10°C capture downside risks from stronger cooling if fog develops or winds remain calm. Upcoming hourly observations from official networks will refine resolution as the night progresses.