Recent small-magnitude earthquakes in the Los Angeles basin and surrounding faults, including events below 3.0 and isolated 4.9 aftershocks months earlier, reflect background seismic rates with no foreshock sequences or elevated activity on the San Andreas or local systems. USGS long-term forecasts assign roughly 60% odds of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event over 30 years, but the remaining four-month window to 2027 keeps short-term probabilities low given typical recurrence intervals and absence of triggering conditions. Trader consensus at 94.3% for no reflects this quiet period and historical rarity of rapid escalation. A sudden swarm or multi-fault rupture could still shift outcomes before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2027年前洛杉磯發生6.5級以上地震？
2027年前洛杉磯發生6.5級以上地震？
6% 機率
$16,533 交易量
$16,533 交易量
2026-12-31
6% 機率
$16,533 交易量
$16,533 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent small-magnitude earthquakes in the Los Angeles basin and surrounding faults, including events below 3.0 and isolated 4.9 aftershocks months earlier, reflect background seismic rates with no foreshock sequences or elevated activity on the San Andreas or local systems. USGS long-term forecasts assign roughly 60% odds of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event over 30 years, but the remaining four-month window to 2027 keeps short-term probabilities low given typical recurrence intervals and absence of triggering conditions. Trader consensus at 94.3% for no reflects this quiet period and historical rarity of rapid escalation. A sudden swarm or multi-fault rupture could still shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
交易量
$16,533結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent small-magnitude earthquakes in the Los Angeles basin and surrounding faults, including events below 3.0 and isolated 4.9 aftershocks months earlier, reflect background seismic rates with no foreshock sequences or elevated activity on the San Andreas or local systems. USGS long-term forecasts assign roughly 60% odds of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event over 30 years, but the remaining four-month window to 2027 keeps short-term probabilities low given typical recurrence intervals and absence of triggering conditions. Trader consensus at 94.3% for no reflects this quiet period and historical rarity of rapid escalation. A sudden swarm or multi-fault rupture could still shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$16,533結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent small-magnitude earthquakes in the Los Angeles basin and surrounding faults, including events below 3.0 and isolated 4.9 aftershocks months earlier, reflect background seismic rates with no foreshock sequences or elevated activity on the San Andreas or local systems. USGS long-term forecasts assign roughly 60% odds of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event over 30 years, but the remaining four-month window to 2027 keeps short-term probabilities low given typical recurrence intervals and absence of triggering conditions. Trader consensus at 94.3% for no reflects this quiet period and historical rarity of rapid escalation. A sudden swarm or multi-fault rupture could still shift outcomes before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions